-EV?

 

sorry, poker term for "expected value"

 

-EV just another way of saying "doing this would reduce our chances of winning", +EV would be something that increased the chances, etc

Vote Count

Clov (2) - LZM, SK
Dice (1) - Cory

Yes, quite annoying, even though I understand that. But you'll have to excuse me if I don't take you at your word.

 

 

If this is in regards to Dice being mafia, I totally get that.  If it's about Cory's alignment, there is no reason anybody should have concerns about him beyond minor paranoia for not dying.  I refuse to believe that Ben sat there and more or less guilt tripped his teammate while simultaneously shading him as a way of getting Cory to back off/signal.

 

Yes, quite annoying, even though I understand that. But you'll have to excuse me if I don't take you at your word.

 

If this is in regards to Dice being mafia, I totally get that. If it's about Cory's alignment, there is no reason anybody should have concerns about him beyond minor paranoia for not dying. I refuse to believe that Ben sat there and more or less guilt tripped his teammate while simultaneously shading him as a way of getting Cory to back off/signal.

It's in regards to Corys idea of Dice/Ley scum team.

Do not lynch Clov today. Literally for the love of God. Do not lynch Clov today if you are a villager who wants to win this game.

 

TY.

I would like to lynch dice or Leyrann. Preferably dice, but I would lynch Leyrann if we wanted to work toward resolving LZM's peeks.

 

I don't think we should, but either beats a Clov lynch and it's not even close.

 

 

Yes, quite annoying, even though I understand that. But you'll have to excuse me if I don't take you at your word.

If this is in regards to Dice being mafia, I totally get that. If it's about Cory's alignment, there is no reason anybody should have concerns about him beyond minor paranoia for not dying. I refuse to believe that Ben sat there and more or less guilt tripped his teammate while simultaneously shading him as a way of getting Cory to back off/signal.

It's in regards to Corys idea of Dice/Ley scum team.

 

 

Fair enough.

 

Do not lynch Clov today. Literally for the love of God. Do not lynch Clov today if you are a villager who wants to win this game.

 

TY.

 

Saving this for the next time we play together.

It's only for today Clov :P

 

Though I actually am pretty sure you're a villager now outside of my other assumptions, so lol thats nice right?

@BFG now i'm having the sinking feeling. did you steal your british stoicism back??

It's only for today Clov :P

 

Though I actually am pretty sure you're a villager now outside of my other assumptions, so lol thats nice right?

 

Are you sure?  I kind of want more people to accuse me of being really incompetent scum.

Considering Leyrann could be mech cleared later in the game, it would also probably be very dumb to lynch him today when we already have a lead.

Some problems I have with Dice's content

 

- BFG noted that dice did not react to SK's self-vote the way dice normally would. Dice explained he was waiting to see what Nolder did; Nolder did the opposite of what dice expected, but he was talked out of pursuing it in a meaningful way incredibly quickly. Nothing in that sequence felt like genuine dice. I am not sure if he didn't know how to handle BFG calling him out on something very out of character for him and pretended it was a strategy as a [convenient lie], or if he plotted it in advance. In the first scenario, he's always a wolf - dice wouldn't tell a meaningless lie as a villager, he'd just explain himself. In the second scenario, I doubt he does that and then immediately disengages from it as soon as Nolder gives some rational for it. Dice is an attacker, and when he sees something suspect, he attacks. I'm not saying he'd tunnel Nolder, but he'd at least follow up and try to discern Nolder's alignment rather than just accepting his answer and never thinking about it again.

 

- His reads on re-entry have been very thin. His read on Niniel was okay, but it's a read he'd be heavily expected to make as a villager and I'd guess he's very aware of that. Moreso, a handful of weak-ish townreads and no real attack from dice are perpetually poor signs.

 

- Even in his brief entries into the game, his level of engagement and outward reach are all basically zero. Even on limited time, dice is someone who very much will at least attempt to reach out to people and try to work in his own way to figure out their alignments. His reads this game have been reactionary and sluggish. I have been in games with dice he's hopped out of his wolf range in literally 5-8 posts, not through volume, but just by showcasing his thought process and making meaningful reads he processed through his internal filter. It's utterly absent here.

I just got done playing with Dice at JN, and somebody claimed scum D1 just like SK did here. Dice immediately went pro "policy lynch anyone claiming scum".

 

Pretty sure that's what he did this game too. Went straight for SK.

 

Other than that I have no quarrel with the rest of that summation Cory. A lot of it feels like meta reads to me.

re: Dice & SK; Dice does do the policy lynch anyone claiming scum thing, but it's usually just an element of his game.

 

Here, it's basically his entire game. He has no interest in other people's alignments, it's basically the only thing resembling a scum read. And he never pursues SK in a meaningful way besides the vote & a few times going "SK claimed scum so I'm gonna lynch him".

 

Doing what people expect you to do is ipso facto how many players approach playing mafia, and dice is included in this. I care much more about what people don't do.

Meta is certainly a tool in the toolkit of hunting woofs, and a useful one at that. I think in terms of game mechanics, we should lynch in the "null" pool of Dar'Jen, Marsh and Dice. In terms of reads, Dice is my preferred lynch and there's a pretty big distance between him and anyone else now.

 

When my stab @ the mechanics and my reads line up, I tend to pursue it XD

@Iron what's your read on me?

Light green town. Your content shouts "solving," and I doubt Ben would have treated you the way he did had you been teammates.

So trying to figure out if Nolder being eliminated was for a particular reason, or if it was just to remove someone town?

 

I think he was the first to vote for Ben, so maybe it was a revenge move?

 

Trying to consider this as a glance back through posts.

I just got done playing with Dice at JN, and somebody claimed scum D1 just like SK did here. Dice immediately went pro "policy lynch anyone claiming scum".

 

Pretty sure that's what he did this game too. Went straight for SK.

 

Other than that I have no quarrel with the rest of that summation Cory. A lot of it feels like meta reads to me.

 

re: Dice & SK; Dice does do the policy lynch anyone claiming scum thing, but it's usually just an element of his game.

 

Here, it's basically his entire game. He has no interest in other people's alignments, it's basically the only thing resembling a scum read. And he never pursues SK in a meaningful way besides the vote & a few times going "SK claimed scum so I'm gonna lynch him".

 

Doing what people expect you to do is ipso facto how many players approach playing mafia, and dice is included in this. I care much more about what people don't do.

 

Yeah, I would guess that Dice would argue for someone's lynch that claimed scum regardless of his alignment and their alignment.  I think he would make severely less of an effort to harp on them for it if they were scummates, but I'm pretty sure he would throw the idea out there, for pretty much the reason Cory mentioned regarding his other reads - it's expected of him.

 

I said it before when Sooh said that post of his wasn't Dicelike, and I'll stand by it - nothing in that post wasn't Dicelike.  They were thoughts I would expect him to have as town, and they were thoughts I would expect him to put out there as mafia.  

So trying to figure out if Nolder being eliminated was for a particular reason, or if it was just to remove someone town?

 

I think he was the first to vote for Ben, so maybe it was a revenge move?

 

Trying to consider this as a glance back through posts.

 

I would normally say this tends to be a mostly useless effort (with the exception of a few setups), but I kind of what to see where this goes.

So trying to figure out if Nolder being eliminated was for a particular reason, or if it was just to remove someone town?

 

I think he was the first to vote for Ben, so maybe it was a revenge move?

 

Trying to consider this as a glance back through posts.

 

I imagine a few reasons -

 

He was a villager that was never going to get lynched (IE most players had him as a ~consensus villager), he had potential to be cop (left a correct peek), he was one the people who wanted Ben lynched and had good rationale for it.

 

Typically wolves try to eliminate players who are not going to be lynchable, since they win the game by achieving a certain amount of mislynches, and typically they'd want players ~easy to mislynch alive over people hard to lynch :P

Something something cops have wrong peeks.

Something something cops have wrong peeks.

 

Sure, but with two true seers and one insane seer, I imagine shooting in the group of people with ~correct peeks would be the optimal move.

I mean it's a guess, but it's all pretty irrelevant. Nolder's dead. We won't know why until post-game. It's a guess :P

Now, the only question I have left for myself is, did scum use one of their frames on Clov N-1...........?

That was my immediate thought as well. Clov reads town by my metrics (which is like 75% tone, if you must know)

Thanks for your thoughts Cory and Clov. I do appreciate it