On 7/15/2022 at 6:46 PM, Hallia said:

Vote: Sinister Death

 

On 7/15/2022 at 9:07 PM, Hallia said:

They're gonna hammer me when they get to the thread anyways bc I AM TOWN

If it's over either way

Unvote

Vote: Darthe

 

 

 

Only a couple hours, that’s not really AI for him then.  It could’ve spewed him town (mostly) or you could argue she sniped a second wolf, but the time isn’t enough.

4 minutes ago, TrippedOnReality said:

@whiskey delta , real talk.  Has Hallia ever self-voted as scum? 

Idk but this wouldn’t be the basis of my decision making 

4 minutes ago, TrippedOnReality said:

@whiskey delta , real talk.  Has Hallia ever self-voted as scum? 

Oooh this is a good question.  I don’t remember her ever doing it, but she gets mad about the game as both alignments.

31 minutes ago, Darthe said:

YOU JUST DESCRIBED A PERFECT TOWNIE

 

I don’t know who’s town and who isn’t.  I vote a lot and my reads *change*.
im aggressive, aka I’m HUNTING

i have been on a train I knew was a wolf for THREE IRL DAYS and you want me to be engaged in watching you come up with every stupid reason possible that I might not be right, when I already KNOW I’m right?

 

 

AJ I didn’t get anything back to this.  I expected to.

35 minutes ago, Hallia said:

What are the odds of a survivor or something and two wolves and it's darthe and I both town

Survivor? 

Survivor is a 3p player who wins if they survive to the end of the game.

 

pretty low chance in general, especially in a basic game, but they crop up now and again.

I'm going to pick a number between 1 and 7.

The next person that guesses that number is my vote. 

Just now, SinisterDeath said:

I'm going to pick a number between 1 and 7.

The next person that guesses that number is my vote. 

I don’t mean this to come across rude so please don’t read it that way, but what’s the point of playing if you aren’t going to try?  I’ve not put in this much effort for you to waste it with a completely uninformed guess.  Please try to use your logic and reasoning skills to make a decision you can actually justify.

7 minutes ago, SinisterDeath said:

I'm going to pick a number between 1 and 7.

The next person that guesses that number is my vote. 

Like why is this town? Lol

16 minutes ago, whiskey delta said:

Idk but this wouldn’t be the basis of my decision making 

 

Fair I guess.  I feel gross even saying it, but it was the one thing that really stuck out to me today that could potentially be pretty AI.

17 minutes ago, Darthe said:

Please try to use your logic and reasoning skills to make a decision you can actually justify.

Y'all are just as likely to be wolf or town.  We've gone so far beyond logic at this point, that may as well gamble, and may the odds be in our favor. 

11 minutes ago, whiskey delta said:

Like why is this town? Lol

It’s very bad play, but I think it’s NAI.  Also, should be obvious with how much of a finger I have in this thread that if we were in a wolf chat together he would never say stuff like that.

Just now, SinisterDeath said:

Y'all are just as likely to be wolf or town.  We've gone so far beyond logic at this point, that may as well gamble, and may the odds be in our favor. 

No. No we are not.  We are 75% likely to be town at Rand and though that probability does transfer the root principles that inform the game hold true.  We’d not have huge communities playing this game for 40 years if it were broken or random.

I’ve already given you all the answer.  It’s a gift. I solved it.  You’re welcome.  Figure it out and get past this.

3 minutes ago, Darthe said:

No. No we are not.  We are 75% likely to be town at Rand and though that probability does transfer the root principles that inform the game hold true.  We’d not have huge communities playing this game for 40 years if it were broken or random.

Also, today must be hally or me.  Choosing outside of that is distinctly anti-town because as stated ad nauseum, wolves only need one town vote to win.

17 minutes ago, Darthe said:

Also, today must be hally or me.  Choosing outside of that is distinctly anti-town because as stated ad nauseum, wolves only need one town vote to win.

Only sith deal in absolutes

4 minutes ago, Hallia said:

Only sith deal in absolutes

So you conceptually think today can end without one of us being lynched?

2 minutes ago, Darthe said:

So you conceptually think today can end without one of us being lynched?

I've been trying to discuss other things multiple times so I mean

 

Yes 

That's a red flag but hell with it, I live in the twilight zone so I'll play ball.  If we did that, where would you want to vote?

13 minutes ago, Darthe said:

That's a red flag but hell with it, I live in the twilight zone so I'll play ball.  If we did that, where would you want to vote?

I already answered this as well, SD/voodoo with an outside chance of trip

 

33 minutes ago, Hallia said:

I already answered this as well, SD/voodoo with an outside chance of trip

 

That's not a direction, that's half the game. Which one?

25 minutes ago, Darthe said:

That's not a direction, that's half the game. Which one?

I believe I also answered that when I voted SD

1 hour ago, Darthe said:

No. No we are not.  We are 75% likely to be town at Rand and though that probability does transfer the root principles that inform the game hold true.  We’d not have huge communities playing this game for 40 years if it were broken or random.

If there are 3 wolves, out of 7 players currently alive, that means ~42.5% of us are wolf, and ~57.5% Town. Which directly translates to the odds of picking wolf vs villager. The 75% you cite earlier, is only valid on D1.

 

If we remove Verbal from that pool it's basically a 50/50 if we assume we he cannot be a wolf.

If he is a wolf, that tips the odds to 33% wolf to 66% villager. 

 

It is kinda sus that you're using D1 odds and pushing that as why going random is extremely bad (75% vs 57%)

 

I can't rule out a game where Darthe & Hallia are teamed. Nor a game with Darthe and Verb. Or Verb and Hallia. Or anyone else. I only know I am a villager, and with all the sus going on, if I pick anyone besides me, the odds are 50/50.

12 minutes ago, Hallia said:

I believe I also answered that when I voted SD

Not a direction I'm willing to go.  Voodoo?

1 minute ago, SinisterDeath said:

I can't rule out a game where Darthe & Hallia are teamed. Nor a game with Darthe and Verb. Or Verb and Hallia. Or anyone else. I only know I am a villager, and with all the sus going on, if I pick anyone besides me, the odds are 50/50

Since I also know I'm 100% a villager, and if we assume Verb is definitely not a wolf and remove him and I from that Pool, it's 60% chance anyone voted at random is a wolf, assuming Verb and I are definitely not wolves. Those odds drop to 40% chance of picking a wolf if verb is definitely a wolf.