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'09 NFL Season Discussion

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I knew the Jets were going to win this week because the Bengals played to win last week for the first half and then sat players in the second when the game was already being dominated by the Jets.  I also knew the Cowboys would win because they have found their stride and there aren't any big weaknesses to their team right now and Philly is one-dimensional relying on big plays by an inconsistent QB.  I would have guessed that the Ravens would win because the Pats are plagued by injuries and w/o Welker to dump to when he's in trouble the offense would have a bad time against the Ravens.  Of course this would all have been great if I posted before the games. :P  I bet Green Bay wins against the Cardinals because GB is really hot right now and not having Boldin is going to hurt thee Cards especially since the GB defense has been playing extremely well. 

I called all 4 games correctly this weekend.  Everyone I wanted to win did.  Nice.  Hope Baltimore comes out of the AFC as the Champs since thats my AFC team if the Saints don't go anywhere.  But of course I want Saints to come out of the NFC and play the Vikes for the crown.  I have a feeling it will be Baltimore vs. Chargers for the AFC crown and no matter who comes out of that it will be the superbowl I want as long as My Saints get through and win the SB or should they fall, my fellow USM alum Brett Favre takes the Vikes to the Title.  If both my NFC picks should fall next week then Baltimore is my hope for the SB.  GO SAINTS!!!!

The Pats problems were more than just Welker.  The defense sucked hardcore, and Brady had 4 turnovers (although imo only 2 of them were really his fault).  Edelman was pretty good in the slot, but Brady still had one less target which made things much easier for the Ravens.  Welker getting hurt was a serious blow, but it wasn't insurmountable.  The Pats just plain played poorly.  I hope the Ravens win the AFC now, not only because it will vindicate the Pats somewhat, but because I really detest the Colts, Jets, and Chargers.  I guess I'll be rooting for the Saints the rest of the way, because I love Drew Brees and I have been predicting good things for the Saints ever since they got him.  The Saints really stumbled into the playoffs though, so they'll have to turn it up.

I cant wait to see Baltimore die a horrible death next week.  >:( At least they got rid of New England though.

 

GB-Arizona was a great game. Had everything you could want... even an Arizona version of the Immaculate Reception... maybe the Immaculate Interception?  :D

If I were the Saints, I would be worried.  Arizona has the experience in the playoffs and looks good.  I expect this to be a great matchup with the Cardinals coming out on top. 

 

I hate the Cowboys...  hopefully the Vikings can knock them off.

 

 

 

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If I were the Saints, I would be worried.  Arizona has the experience in the playoffs and looks good.  I expect this to be a great matchup with the Cardinals coming out on top. 

 

I hate the Cowboys...  hopefully the Vikings can knock them off.

Cause we both know the vikings are

Going

all

the

way!

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Calling Indy over Baltimore, Chargers over Jets, Cardinals over Saints, and Vikes over Jerry's Boys.

Nope all wrong here will be the Divisional Round Outcomes...

 

Saints over Cardinals

Vikings over Cowboys - Essentially taking out each others' weakness match up.

 

and in the AFC I think it will be a visitor team routing the home teams.

 

Jets over Chargers

Ravens over Colts - the only one i'm not sure on is the Chargers game...thats the only one I feel could go either way but Jets are my pick in that.

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The Saints are demoralized, and struggling.  The Cardinals are coming off one of the greatest (and controversial) victories in playoff history.  The have a QB who is probably playing in his last season and wants another Super Bowl ring.  Not to mention a never ending depth chart of good-great-awesome WRs.  I think it'll be another shoot out but I think Arizona has bigger guns and more of them.

Wow I really disagree on all of that except the fact that Warner wants another ring...who wouldn't, but the Saints aren't demoralized or struggling.  They dropped the Dallas game because the injuries to the secondary caused the LB's to have to drop back and play more cover which means less men on a blitz therefore less pressure on opposing QB's.  That loss was purely injuries catching up to them, they almost came back and put it in OT.  After that, the Vikes lost which gave them homefield advantage so in the Tampa game, they got up and then Peyton went conservative and it bit them.  They all know this so its not struggle or demoralization.  Finally the last game, they sat Brees because undefeated was gone and they rested all injured people even though some could play.  The main point to consider is we have our secondary fully back and healthy so the blitzes are gonna be raining in now with everyone they actually want to throw at the opposition while Greer and Porter are now back to hold down man to man on the outside correctly with Sharper over top to mop up and Harper dropping in to blitz and run coverage.  The beginning of the season Saints Defense is what is coming at the Cardinals and whoever they play beyond.  And the last point I must talk about is that the Saints have the better depth at WR's and TE and RB.  I don't know where you got that from just because of one game.  Colston, Henderson, Meachem, Moore, Shockey, D.Thomas, Dinkins are better collectively than Fitzgerald, Boldin(injured), Breaston, Doucette.  And we have a better Return man in Roby.  Plus the P.Thomas, Bush, Bell combo is better than the Hightower, Wells combo especially since the Defense will be in full support from now on.  

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It was more than just the last three games they struggled for pretty much the last half of the season...

 

Not to mention that the Saints are ranked 25th in over all pass defense. The Packers were ranked 5th and we saw what the Cardinals did to them.

 

Colston is the only reliable receiver that the Saints have, maybe Moore(only 14 catches this year) and Shockey (both also dealing with injuries).  You never know when Meachem and Henderson are gonna show up.  And Dinkins? Only 22 yards receiving all year, non factor.  Arizona has two 1000 yard receivers and back up wide receivers that have proved they can step up when needed (ex. Doucett v Packers, Breaston all season) I think the Cardinals have the bigger arsenal.  I'll give the running game to the Saints, but I don't think that either teams running game is going to be a factor, this is going to be an air show.

 

It is going to be a CLOSE game... but Cardinals get the edge in my book.  Of course... I didn't pick a single wild card game right... so what do I know? ;D

I am just saying... the Saints have been on a downturn for some time.  Brees is awesome.  If he sprinkles his magic on his arm and does 500 yards they will win... maybe.  Warner has that kind of magic too.  The Saints defense... while improved with that guy coming back from injury (his name escapes me) is still not better than Arizona's defense.  The Cardinals have Fitz... and while Colston, he is not Fitz.  I am not sure if Bolden will still be out.

 

I still say the Saints lose.  I think they have been over rated all season because Brees is so good.  And Brees may win the game for the Saints.  I will eat crow if Brees has an awful game and the Saints win somehow.

I don't know much about football but here's my take:

 

I think both Brees and Warner will have really good games.  Both are really good veteran quarterbacks and neither the Cardinals nor the Saints have stellar pass defenses.  Colston may not be as good as Fitzgerald but he is still in the top tier of receivers in the NFL imo.  Idk what will happen with Boldin but if he is available that will be big for the Cardinals.  I'd rather have Breaston over Meachem or Henderson because of his performance last year, but after Breaston the Cardinals WRs don't impress me much.  Meachem and Henderson are both good imo.  Meachem has a knack for getting in the endzone even when he doesn't get a lot of receptions (which is why I took a flyer on him in my fantasy league along with already having Brees).  Also, the Saints have Shockey who not too long ago was one of the best TEs in the league.  I'd give the Saints a definite edge in the passing game because they have a better quarterback and possibly more threats.

 

As for the running game how would the Saints running game not be a factor?  If the Cardinals have to defend against the run, then they are less effective against the pass and vice versa.  Also, the running game lets you eat clock which is obviously very useful.  The Saints have an edge in this department too imo.  The Saints have a fearsome three-headed monster while the Cardinals have Wells and Hightower.  Hightower is more of a threat receiving than running, but Wells has been turning it on lately and Hightower has had some impressive games (one of which was against the Rams though).  Beanie Wells might have a lot of pressure on him.  Depending how the passing game goes, he may be sorely needed and he could always have a bad game.  If one of the Saints' RBs has a bad game they still have 2 other guys who they can use.

 

Clearly the Cardinals have a better defense, but none of the Saints's losses in the regular season were high scoring affairs.  It is troubling that those losses all came at the end though.  Momentum means so much in the playoffs for any sport and the Cardinals certainly have a lot more than the Saints right now.  I think Drew Brees will be able to rally his team sufficiently and players coming back from injuries will buoy the rest of the guys up as well as strengthen the defense. I think we will see some of that explosive offense we saw in the first three quarters of the season albeit regressed to the mean somewhat.  I don't think it's going to be an easy win by any means but I definitely think the Saints will win.  My prediction is the Saints by 10 to 14 points.  I do think Empy is right that a lot of it hinges on Brees though.  I'm just confident Brees will have a good game.  Then again, I didn't see Tom Brady giving up 4 turnovers in a playoff game.  As always, anything could happen.

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As for the running game how would the Saints running game not be a factor?  If the Cardinals have to defend against the run, then they are less effective against the pass and vice versa.  Also, the running game lets you eat clock which is obviously very useful.  The Saints have an edge in this department too imo.

 

Neither of these teams have depended on the run this season.  Both these teams are through the air quick strike teams, who occasionally run to keep the D on their toes (against normal teams).  But when you have two teams playing against each other who BOTH have that quick strike mentality, you can't afford to eat clock a methodically drive the field.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if this game out scores the Green Bay - Arizona game.

As for the running game how would the Saints running game not be a factor?  If the Cardinals have to defend against the run, then they are less effective against the pass and vice versa.  Also, the running game lets you eat clock which is obviously very useful.  The Saints have an edge in this department too imo.

 

Neither of these teams have depended on the run this season.  Both these teams are through the air quick strike teams, who occasionally run to keep the D on their toes (against normal teams).  But when you have two teams playing against each other who BOTH have that quick strike mentality, you can't afford to eat clock a methodically drive the field.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if this game out scores the Green Bay - Arizona game.

 

Even the most explosive of teams can find themselves in a situation where they want to take time off the clock but that wasn't my main point.  I'm not saying that the Saints are going to change their style.  I expect them to pass first and run sparingly once the pass is established.  The run can be very effective for some nice yardage when used like that.  Why do you think Kevin Faulk got 79 yards on 12 carries in that heartbreaker against Indianapolis earlier this season?  Saying the Saints running game won't matter is like saying a right-handed person's left hand doesn't matter.

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In this game it won't.  If the way they're going to win is throw right hooks then the left hand is pretty insignificant.

I know but think about when that dip in defense started...when Greer and Porter got hurt.  Clancy and Ellis going down isn't a problem because Hargrove stepped up and the other backup DT's will be fine.  I think Ellis is back for the playoffs though so it won't be an issue.  With the corners back in place the defense will be back to early season form.  As for saying Colston isn't Fitzgerald, well no he is Colston and the top possession receiver in the league.  His hands are just as good as Fitz and he can also get deep too.  Yes Boldin and Fitz are 1000 yrd receivers but Colston has over 1000 and Meachem and Henderson have in the 700's and 800's with more TD's between them all.  Just like how Thomas has the most Rushing yards but Reggie has most TDs of the RB's.  Much better hands across the board on the Saints and they are gonna go in wanting it more than anyone they come across.

In this game it won't.  If the way they're going to win is throw right hooks then the left hand is pretty insignificant.

 

Try fighting someone competent like that and see what happens.

Calling Indy over Baltimore, Chargers over Jets, Cardinals over Saints, and Vikes over Jerry's Boys.

 

The two games you got wrong.  Jets beat the Chargers; SD's all passing on Offense; Jets have the best pass D in the league (and shut down Hou and NO, two passing offenses on par with SD's).

 

The Jets are all about the run on O, and the Chargers' run D is mediocre (despite 4 games against KC and Oak).

 

That's just a bad matchup.

 

Saints will be dominant again now that their secondary is healthy

Wow I really disagree on all of that except the fact that Warner wants another ring...who wouldn't, but the Saints aren't demoralized or struggling.  They dropped the Dallas game because the injuries to the secondary caused the LB's to have to drop back and play more cover which means less men on a blitz therefore less pressure on opposing QB's.  That loss was purely injuries catching up to them, they almost came back and put it in OT.  After that, the Vikes lost which gave them homefield advantage so in the Tampa game, they got up and then Peyton went conservative and it bit them.  They all know this so its not struggle or demoralization.  Finally the last game, they sat Brees because undefeated was gone and they rested all injured people even though some could play.  The main point to consider is we have our secondary fully back and healthy so the blitzes are gonna be raining in now with everyone they actually want to throw at the opposition while Greer and Porter are now back to hold down man to man on the outside correctly with Sharper over top to mop up and Harper dropping in to blitz and run coverage.  The beginning of the season Saints Defense is what is coming at the Cardinals and whoever they play beyond.  And the last point I must talk about is that the Saints have the better depth at WR's and TE and RB.  I don't know where you got that from just because of one game.  Colston, Henderson, Meachem, Moore, Shockey, D.Thomas, Dinkins are better collectively than Fitzgerald, Boldin(injured), Breaston, Doucette.  And we have a better Return man in Roby.  Plus the P.Thomas, Bush, Bell combo is better than the Hightower, Wells combo especially since the Defense will be in full support from now on.  

 

Not even close.  Both Fitz and Boldin are better than Colston, and I'd take Breaston over Henderson as well - he's just a much more complete receiver.  Yes, the Saints' tertiary targets are better, but if you gave me a choice, I'd take the Cards' receivers over the Saints in a heartbeat.

 

And Wells is a hell of a back

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