Ithi I sent in my action this morning. When my head was clearer. I wrote down a list of everyone left, with reasons why Ley would watch them as mafia or town. I already wrote those reasons down here on why I thought he would view you. On my list you seemed like the clearest choice when I was trying to think like Ley. Want me to post my entire list?

 

 

If there are 3 Mafia plus another anti Town - or if there are 3 Mafia plus a symp - or 4 Mafia.

 

Then they only need 1 Town on a Lynch to pull the trigger.

 

But I have to go to bed now. Got a long long day tomorrow. Please be careful.

Hmm so no rushed votes..

Also if Mish flips Town - as inlikely as I may believe - it only confirms that Ley is a Watcher.

 

It doesn't confirm his alignment.

 

Watchers can be both Town or Mafia.

 

Also @ BG - how are you sure that Rand had a Power Role. Why didn't you think he might be making it up last minute as Mafia to save himself from a Lynch. I believe that happens - don't you? Especially as his claim was so vague. Why did you believe it? His was the largest Train. Why would you prefer a Vanilla Town to die rather than someone who would be scrambling to avoid a Lynch and didn't even have a half decent claim.

 

And who hasn't appeared with the promised goods today so far?

 

Fair enough. I wasn't sure, but taking it at face value there are plenty of roles that lose effectiveness when they are know about. Seemed a simple choice to me to let him live one more day to try and prove it.

If I was a Watcher - I would want to watch who I thought would be Killed. He thought I was Mafia. He STILL thinks I am Mafia.

 

Why would he think I was Town enough to be Watched. Both of your explanations just don't make sense.

 

If you had both just randomly selected me then that would have been a 1 in 13 chance. But that he chose me for his reasons and you deduced that he would do that - given the evidence from the previous days.

 

With that amount of deductive reasoning - who do you think is Mafia @ Mish?

I need to sleep. Don't let me wake up to anyone dead.

Dap

I jailed Talya

 

I stayed away from the Ley, Rand, Chuckles trilogy cos I was t sure where chuckles was shooting and then ed so I went with Talya cos I thought she was mafia and hoped she would be sending in the kills

So ed, no explanation why you didn't shoot someone, no actual reasoning

Ithi: I think everyone is mafia now... Heh. I don't trust anyone right now; not even Cloud even though there's been no other Doc claim. My gut is all over the place. --- I think my linebreaks might be gone now, so this might be messy, but here's the list of notes I made this morning when I tried to figure out who Ley would visit: Me- Cannot see any reasons why L would watch me as either mafia or town; I'm under enough suspicioun that I don't think mafia will NK me. Cloud-To confirm he's the Doc, L might want to do that as either mafia or town. C might be protecting someone else too (or lieing about his role but say he protected someone else if Ley views him). L doesn't seem to bother much with C Ithi: If L is mafia; to see if Ithi has some self-targeting role, if L is town; to see if It has some self-targeting power as either town or mafia, if she's mafia someone in the mafia might protect her in some way (busdriver, mafia doc/joat, redirector). L has interacted alot with It Chuckles: If L is mafia; probably won't bother. If L town, to see potential NK or roleblock. Rand: If L is mafia, to see if R gets protected by doc/jailkeeper. If L is town, to see if Rand draws NK with his mysery claim. Dap; if L is town, to see if D gets targeted with NK Ed, bG, talya, don't think L will choose either, hangs in the background, low risks of atraction nk if town. --- All notes are made on the basis that the particular person and L isn't mafia together. I don't think Ley would view a fellow mafia member.

Ithi: I think everyone is mafia now... Heh. I don't trust anyone right now; not even Cloud even though there's been no other Doc claim. My gut is all over the place. ---

 

I think my linebreaks might be gone now, so this might be messy, but here's the list of notes I made this morning when I tried to figure out who Ley would visit:

 

Me- Cannot see any reasons why L would watch me as either mafia or town; I'm under enough suspicioun that I don't think mafia will NK me.

Cloud-To confirm he's the Doc, L might want to do that as either mafia or town. C might be protecting someone else too (or lieing about his role but say he protected someone else if Ley views him). L doesn't seem to bother much with C

seems like cloud was a very good choice, the only reason he doesn't is "L doesn't seem to bother with C"

To me that's not a good enough reason not to think he would target cloud. Cloud seems like a good target

Ithi: If L is mafia; to see if Ithi has some self-targeting role, if L is town; to see if It has some self-targeting power as either town or mafia, if she's mafia someone in the mafia might protect her in some way (busdriver, mafia doc/joat, redirector). L has interacted alot with It

why would you think she has a "self targeting" role. Seems very precise and ideA. Plus he only gets names. So how would that list of roles be relevant?

Chuckles: If L is mafia; probably won't bother. If L town, to see potential NK or roleblock.

and wouldn't a town player want to get the names of the people who target a potential NK. That's potentially one mafia name.

Much better choice than "I wonder if she has a self targeting role"

The reason someone would want to know that is if they were mafia

Rand: If L is mafia, to see if R gets protected by doc/jailkeeper. If L is town, to see if Rand draws NK with his mysery claim.

another far better choice than ithi. Still not as good as chuckles though cos Rand is a likely lynch come day

Dap; if L is town, to see if D gets targeted with NK

why no if L is mafia? But still a better choice than ithi

Ed, bG, talya, don't think L will choose either, hangs in the background, low risks of atraction nk if town.

I agree with this one

--- All notes are made on the basis that the particular person and L isn't mafia together. I don't think Ley would view a fellow mafia member.

if one of the mafia roles was being messed with, a mafia watched can watch them and see who the messer upper was

I'm not saying my logic is the best one; but it was what I thought of.

Yet you are saying it synced up with Leys

Dap

 

That's insightful.

Dap; apparantly it is, because he says he viewed Ithi whom I visited.

Rand and Dap are mafia. :-)

OK, so a few things.  My role was a 1-shot mirror, so that is what deflected the kill back onto Chuckles.  From mine, and I think the majority of people's view, I thought that Chuckles was an SK and wanted to get rid of him before he could do any damage.  My thoughts on Chuckles yesterday was him going to work with town if it worked in his favor, and if they gave him multiple options (like we did) he would take the one that would help him the most.  Thats why I tried to claim a power role that seemed like something he might want to go after, and the reason I thought it was going to be powerful was I thought I would be able to take out the SK, which would be pretty helpful for town.  However, I was wrong, and he was town, so my role didn't end up helping, so I'm sorry for that.

 

Also, Dap jailed Talya and Ley watched Ithi.  Ley watching Ithi doesn't have too much significance, but I think, if Dap is town, Dap jailing Talya might have something to do with the reason that there was only one kill which resulted from my mirror of Chuckles kill. That or Cloud's protection, which I will talk about later.  If Dap is mafia, then there would be no reason for him to protect Talya and then have the mafia team shoot her, but if Dap is town, then it would make sense for either of two things.  Either Talya was the one shot, or Talya was the one doing the shooting.  Because Talya has been seen as suspicious throughout the game, I doubt that the mafia would try to kill her.  Therefore I think that Talya might be mafia who was blocked.  I'll be looking at this later as well.

 

Going back to whether or not Dap is town, playwise, I still think that Dap is mafia.  He has been suspicious of the masons the whole game, his role would fit a mafia roleblocker, and so on.  The case that he can't be a mafia roleblocker because of killing Cloud is negated by the fact that if he was a town jailkeeper, he should have been killed by now.  However, this recent lack of kill makes me think that Dap might have somehow stopped the kill here, which makes me think that he is now more likely to be town.  This however brings me to

 

Cloud's protection.  From previous posts, it seems like you are continuing to self protect the entire game, can you confirm if you did this or not?  I doubt that the mafia would try to kill you if they didn't have a roleblocker, and if they did, you would be dead.  So this means that they might have tried to kill you if you protected someone else, so it would be helpful to know this.

 

Concerning Ithi - I would like to clarify somethings that I have said just to be safe, when I talked about her not being up to par in catching mafia, I was not talking about her sickness at all, not did I want to make a reference to that.

 

Now back to Ithi in the game, I think that Ithi has been doing things this game like going after the PRs that shows that she is purposely not going after the mafia.  Also, her recent switching people a lot has me worried, because usually, Ithi tends to stick onto her reads and doesn't change that often.  This game however, she is changing much more than normal, and I feel like this is the first time I have seen her off her meta and what a normal town player does.  Obviously I said on day 1 that her meta was on spot, but I couldn't see her changing her votes from that point.  I think right now she is spreading her suspicion to be able to lynch multiple people.  So from the play aspect, I think she is mafia.  However, from the role aspect, being a vanilla doesn't really confirm or deny anything, so all I have is her play.  Although this is strong, I will be looking at comparisons later, literally.

 

I have to leave for college now, I will continue my analysis later.

 

 

 

How do you know nothing happened to Ithi? She hasn't spoken yet.

 

She hasn't died. And even though there might've been some other action, it's not likely, as she's claimed Vanilla.

What's my being Vanilla got to do with whatever actions would happen to me?

I don't think there was ever the option of targetting me for a Kill as the Mafia needed to take out Chuckles.

Watching me makes no sense. Ley now saying I might be Town makes even less sense. I was 100% Mafia yesterday

Nothing happened to me @ BG

 

Noone would use any action but a kill or protect on a vanilla. Or that's my thought at least.

 

And I NEVER said I 100% thought you mafia. I ALWAYS keep all options open. You're still looking really scummy to me, but I don't say 100% now, I didn't say it yesterday, and I won't do it until I either see you targeting someone who died that same night, or until you flip mafia. If you are mafia. If you're town, I'll apologize.

My scum list right now:

 

Ithi - Nearly 100% sure.

Turin - Following Ithi on someone with a total lack of a case of any sort. Almost as sure as about Ithi.

Dap - Getting defended by Ithi, plays really scummy. Only just below Dap.

Chuckles - Accidentally told us that he's not town. He's my vote as soon as the mafia above in the list are out.

 

If the game is still going after this, I guess we'll see again. But I wouldn't be surprised if this, maybe with one more, is all that there is left for antitown.

  

I believe someone mafia is not strong enough for you? Then how should I say it? I can't be 100% sure someone is mafia, except if I have the right role and the right target, or someone flipped. For me, "I believe this player is mafia", is an absolute.

While I was looking back I saw this as well

He says no one ELSE targeted ithi or himself, but on me he just says no one targeted. Weird distinction to make

Well there you got your claim Ithi. With a hint in a post back on March the 30th, just as backup in case it'd get heated up around me.

 

Also, if you want to know my results, these are them:

 

Night 1 - I was behind here, and didn't want to have Darthe wait any longer (he was waiting for me), so I watched Ithi, who was most in the spotlights back then. The reveals were after where I was with reading. Noone else targeted Ithi.

 

Night 2 - I watched Dap, noone targeted him.

 

Night 3 - I watched myself (because I thought the Cop might visit me, and I thought it'd be good to know who the Cop was, in case he'd catch a scum and not want to say it), but I again didn't get targeted by anyone else.

 

(note, that I don't think people will appear to have targeted these people if they are roleblocked. I'm not sure though, it's just what seems logical)

 

Lastly, when I first revealed I suggested there might be a mafia jail keeper as well as me

For balance

 

People seem to of forgotten that

What makes you say that ed?

Rand, what is your list if who is mafia?

Lemme ask you a question: What makes you not deny it?

 

Because you are mafia.  

 

Dap unless you suggest there's a mafia visitor as well I doubt it's a mafia jailkeeper. My pm says "Town compulsive visitor" so I think it's just Darthe's way of saying if you're town or mafia.

I've said I'm not mafia over the last 3 days. I wanna know why you now have decided to say it so straight out

 

Mish it was just the way it was titled. It seemd like he had labeled it like that to differentiate between a town and a mafia jail keeper

I could be wrong but that's how it looked to me

 

Bah!

OK continuing the cases I had before.

 

Ed, I honestly have seen very little out of you, and it's not like other people who have been inactive in general.  From what I've heard and seen, you have been able to post in a lot of other places, but in this game alone, I see very little input, a lot of fencesitting and going with the crowd, laying low and blending in.  It makes sense for mafia to have at least one person who is laying somewhat low, and I think thats you.  More importantly, laying low as a mafia member generally occurs when that teammate has a strong PR of some sort, and I'm afraid this is what's happening with you.  I don't remember a role claim from you at all, so I can't really factor in any sort of role information on how you play, but right now, you're looking pretty scummy.

 

Mish, honestly, I have no idea what to think about you in terms of play.  Currently you have been playing a little agressively and on and off, and somewhat like mafia, but you haven't really done anything that screams mafia besides that.  However, your role gives me a little more information.  As a mafia, it would be very odd for you to claim a role as uncommon as visitor.  Also, I think that Darthe would do something like that, put in a role that isn't really that strong of a role.  As I am almost certain some side of watcher is in this game, a visitor would make sense.   Right now, town on you.

 

Finally BG, as a replacement I have less on you than anyone else in the game, except perhaps Ed, but so far you've generally contributed to town, made some good votes, and so on.  The only thing I see about you is maybe some minor fencesitting on the whole side thing, but in some ways that also makes sense on not choosing one side completely.

 

Summary for each player that is in this game right now.

 

2. Ruairidh Misheru 2.0 - Town read because of visitor role, visitor
3. Ed2funy - Scum read, think he is mafia because of lurkiness and non-contributation, thinking possible strong PR, don't know role
4. Ithillian - Scum read because of play of switching between multiple suspects and going after PRs, vanilla
7. Talya - Stronger scum read if Dap is town due to jailkeeping action, weaker scum read if Dap is mafia because of previous reasons, vanilla?
12. Leyrann - Town read because of watcher claim and OPed mafia if I analyze the mafia as the rest of the people I have a mafia read on, watcher
13. Dicetosser Bgrishinko - Town read because of general play that has been straightforward, casing, and thought out votes, vanilla?
14. RandA lThor - Town, 1-shot mirror used up
17._Cloud - Town because unCCed doc, doc
18. dapianoplayer - Mafia read because of play going against masons and role being a perfect fit for a mafia roleblocker, however also an opposite town read because jailkeeper action could have very likely been the reason for the lack of a mafia kill.

 

People I think who are town in order, strongest on top(excluding myself)

Cloud

Ley

BG

Mish

 

People I think who are mafia in order

If Cloud says he self protected, Talya

Otherwise, Ed

Ithi

Dap

 

With 18 people in the game, I suspect either 4 or 5 antitown.  Maw's dead, so thats 3 or 4 antitown.  So basically right now, I am going to move Dap into a null spot

 

People I am confused about

Dap

 

because I don't know if there are 3 or 4 scum left, and Dap's combination of scummy play yet a role that seemed like it blocked a mafia kill are really confusing me.  Unless if Cloud comes back and says he protected someone who was a likely target, I'm going to stay off of Dap today.

 

Waiting on Cloud's answer, but for right now, I'll put my vote Ed on the VC because right now him and Talya are about died, and he is more likely to have a good PR