I am not sure I would agree that the Shadow is going to destroy the Tar Valon, I do beleive there is a pretty good chance that Tar Valon will be somewhat torn up when the Seanchan attack it.  I do not see anyway that the Aes Sedai can stop it.  The three oaths can not help much in this area, you can bet Mat's Luck that every Aes Sedai damane has been questioned on the three oaths.  The three are do not cover the city, just the Aes Sedai and warders. And the Seanchan are not Darkfreinds.

I dont think that it will be purely the SHADOW that will destroy it, but I dont think it will survive the coming months/years well.

Every one is planning a attack on Tar Valon right now.  Even the AS.

 

The Aes Sedai are unlikely candidates for the destruction of their own capital. Egwene can hardly unite the Aes Sedai and make them stronger than ever over the ruins of the White Tower and the bodies of hundreds of thousands of civilians.

 

Even the Seanchan, who will surely be thwarted in their attempt to take the city are unlikely to attempt to raze the city and sow it with salt like they did in one of Rand's portal lives. Toun wants to see the city and speaks of making it her capital after hearing Luca's description of it.

 

The AS will not cause the destruction themselves but they did severely weaken the city's defenses.  Maybe the Seanchan will be fought off.  But it has been mentioned as an obvious symbol and will be attacked by several different groups in the coming months.  It will just be ground down.

It will also be good symbolism for what will happen after TG if Tar Valon is destroyed.  Tar Valon and the current Aes Sedai will become "the old order" so to speak, and represent what was before the Cleansing and all of that.  After TG, a lot will have changed and will need to be dealt with.

I am not sure I would agree that the Shadow is going to destroy the Tar Valon, I do beleive there is a pretty good chance that Tar Valon will be somewhat torn up when the Seanchan attack it.  I do not see anyway that the Aes Sedai can stop it.  The three oaths can not help much in this area, you can bet Mat's Luck that every Aes Sedai damane has been questioned on the three oaths.  The three are do not cover the city, just the Aes Sedai and warders. And the Seanchan are not Darkfreinds.

 

The Three Oaths may present a problem for some Aes Sedai.  While the Seanchan are not Darkfriends, I have little doubt that many will see resisting the Seanchan as "last defense of their lives, the lives of their warder or the lives of their Sisters."  An Aes Sedai can lie if she believes the lie to be truth.  They can fight if they believe their lives are in danger.  Some will be unable to act, many will not.  The city is in less danger than the tower in any case.  The Seanchan will likely attack the tower directly, via Raken and To'Raken.  The attack will be take to the sisters directly.  At Dumai's Well, the sisters needed to be in the line of fire, before they can act.  Unless the entire tower is taken by surprise and leashed in one fell swoop, they will certainly be in the line of fire.  With Egwene there, having seen the attack in her dreams, I am fairly certain that she will be able to organize a very swift response to the initial Seanchan attack.

I would beg to disagree with your assesment, while the tower will certianly be the focus of the attack, the city will be in grave danger as well, the seanchan want to conquer the whole of Rnadland, not just bits and pieces. I find it highly unlikely they will just attacak the tower and leave the Tar Valon gaurds to walk around singing songs.

 

EDIT sidenote.

 

Just remember the battle of Dumi Wells, the Aes Sedai there had to be up close and personel.  also rembemer Mins viewings of the number of Aes Sedai that were either going to die, or be colloared.  I think it is safe to assume the tower is in big trouble.

I did not mean to suggest that the City will be ignored.  More specificly, that the channeling elements of the Seanchan army will focus on the tower, while the conventional armed forces focus on the City.  Remember also, that in order to even approach Tar Vallon, the Seanchan Army will need to get through the Rebel Aes Sedai Army, wich holds all the Tar Vallon Bridge Towns.  A river based assault would be nearly impossible, considering the success (albiet partial) of Egwene's attack on the Harbor Chains.  In that sense, Seanchan will likely not even be able to approach the civilian population of Tar Vallon until they have fought a long pitched battle with one of the Westland's greatest Generals.  Yes, there will be horrible losses, on both sides, but The Seanchan don't really have the elenment of surprise that they think they do.  We have fortelling and prophacy that suggest the Aes Sedai are on the rise, not the fall.  Considering the likelyhood of Elida's leadership falling apart in the face of the Seanchan attack, I think that the chances of a very rapid reconciliation of the Tower and Salidar Aes Sedai very likely.   

I did not mean to suggest that the City will be ignored.  More specificly, that the channeling elements of the Seanchan army will focus on the tower, while the conventional armed forces focus on the City.  Remember also, that in order to even approach Tar Vallon, the Seanchan Army will need to get through the Rebel Aes Sedai Army, wich holds all the Tar Vallon Bridge Towns.  A river based assault would be nearly impossible, considering the success (albiet partial) of Egwene's attack on the Harbor Chains.  In that sense, Seanchan will likely not even be able to approach the civilian population of Tar Vallon until they have fought a long pitched battle with one of the Westland's greatest Generals.  Yes, there will be horrible losses, on both sides, but The Seanchan don't really have the elenment of surprise that they think they do.  We have fortelling and prophacy that suggest the Aes Sedai are on the rise, not the fall.  Considering the likelyhood of Elida's leadership falling apart in the face of the Seanchan attack, I think that the chances of a very rapid reconciliation of the Tower and Salidar Aes Sedai very likely.   

 

Good points on the rebals, they are certianly going to face an attack.

I just hope the rebel AS and the Elaida AS get along quicly, so that the rebel AS can get int the city to protect it better.

 

I also hope people here start making paragraphs, or else my eyes will be too tired to read any of yours posts.

Didn't Egwene have a dream where she was walking through a destroyed city. She finds Rand trapped under a beam of somekind, and he wants here to kill him, or give him the dagger to do it. While Trollocs and Myrdrral are searching the streets for him? I don't remember which book it's from, but I remember it pretty much clearly. I always thought that city was Caemlyn, don't know why, I just did. I believe there was some mention of a ruined palace.

Didn't Egwene have a dream where she was walking through a destroyed city. She finds Rand trapped under a beam of somekind, and he wants here to kill him, or give him the dagger to do it. While Trollocs and Myrdrral are searching the streets for him? I don't remember which book it's from, but I remember it pretty much clearly. I always thought that city was Caemlyn, don't know why, I just did. I believe there was some mention of a ruined palace.

 

It was Caemlyn and it was in her accepted test.

Schizm, because it was in her Accepted test, it will not necessarily come to pass.  In Egwene's Accepted test (all 3 parts), Rand has clearly failed his duties as the Dragon Reborn.  In the first, he never declared himself.  In the second, he was pinned down and barely holding back madness.  In the third, he is captured and possibly about to be gentled.

as for trollocs attacking the Tar Valon, i think it would be pretty impossible unless they had hordes of dreadlords and all the forsaken

The boarder lands have no army to protected there citys. There armys are in Andor. So they are a likely place for mass Trollocs and Myrdrral army to attack. Maradon has on way to get help if attacked. Kardor could is to far and Arad Doman to the south is also to far. That is my bet for the city that get destroyed.

The borderlanders left enough soldiers to stand against anything short of the trolloc wars come again.

 

Of course, being the last battle and all, we should probably expect more trollocs (and other beasties) than during the trolloc wars, so there is quite the possibility for a real massacre.

Yeah, I really do think Tar Valon's gonna burrrnn. It's the most obvious target. When everyone hears that Tar Valon, Tar Valon itself! has been captured by the shadow, who's gonna have the courage to fight on?

 

Its just about to happen as well, I love it! Can we really expect Elaida and Egwene to put aside their differences and work together against the Seanchan? I doubt it. And Taims Ashaman will be based at the White Tower soon if nothing happens to stop them. Classic.