a philosophical question: the dark one betrays..

Elan Morin's logic is still valid, even given the correct statistical reasoning above.

Beware. Here be metaphors.

Picture a wheel, spinning. The Pattern is set along the rim of the wheel like a tire. Because it is circular, the pattern is unending, though every revolution of the wheel slightly changes the pattern's shape like wear on the tire. Since the pattern has no end, time within the pattern also has no end; it is therefore infinite. One can travel forward or backward along the pattern forever and never find a moment where the DO wins.

From a perspective outside the pattern, however, the wheel is still a finite object. This is how the Dark One sees it. So every now and then he jabs the wheel with a stick, causing it to wobble a bit. Should it wobble enough, it will fly off its axle and break. Ta'veren act like gyroscopic force, helping to smooth out and correct the wobbling.

This actually implies that the nature (topology) of the wheel makes it vulnerable to the DO. If the pattern were instead a straight, unending line, then it would also be infinite--and presumably unassailable--from the DO's perspective.

Elan Morin's conclusion is not that at some point in time the DO will win, but that the reality of the pattern is transitory and meaningless given proof of the DO's (or any) existence outside it.

-- dwn